z80

what the hell...this forum looks lonely.


I have this theory that whenever the share market starts to crap itself they all pull their money out and run for cover in the real estate market.
The old bricks 'n mortar herd mentality.

Which drives property prices up for a while...

Then they figure the property market is too overheated and they go for cash.

Then cash is over abundant and they go for shares.

... and it all goes round and round.

Me thinks that shares are sliding a little bit right now.....

tytower

The large trustees are the culprits . The massive amounts of funds controlled by them ,especially the Keating introduced Superannuation contribution required from employees has buggered the financial markets in this country.

They seemingly sold a 49% share of Telstra to the public and were massively oversubscribed (remember that) . In fact the government controlled "Futures Fund" bought the huge majority of them and now look where they are Telstra stake may fund Australian pension plan - International Herald Tribune

I think you are right though about the moves but is it happening now ? Thats always the hard pick -I think not yet but coming.
And...there is a difference this time. At present real estate prices, fewer and fewer people can afford to get started. Wages have not kept up with the doubling of house prices each time
eg say a Cronulla house -mean price now 1 Mill if it doubles 2 Mill ------its hard enough to borrow 1 Mill let alone 2 Mill

Much talk on Satelite about the states being in recession already. Also Japan in dangerous ground. Even talk from China of a Global recession

Sit back a while

tytower

Now its (the ASX) dropped 15 % since November you could be right

pieces

The good thing about all this super money in the market is that they cant bail out quickly . If they did they would kill the market.Not good for them
It has given the average punter time to get out this time.

The yanks are dieing a slow death more skeletons to come properly. Peak loan resets are in the next 2 months .

Just my thoughts

z80

The shares are still sliding......

biggeorge

Yeah, but what a wild ride the Forex market has had lately with the US dollar going to hell.

I'm hardly qualified to make comments on all this, but my take on things is that the property market is nowhere near as liquid as the share market, so generally people don't jump around too much between them.

The general pattern though is approx a 7 year cycle of each. The property market is currently way overheated which makes for some good buying in the share market.

The Howard government saw all this happening, shot themselves in the foot and stepped aside to let labour clean up the mess. The timing was uncanny.

If the US is headed for a recession, you can hardly be surprised. They've overspent on this stupid war on terr-oil-ism.

My advice is to get cashed up, and wait & see which market crashes. This is the prime time to grab some bargains. One mans loss is your gain.

porkop

Whose got money to spend on shares. I have wasted all mine on satelite gear over the years!!!!

z80

there sure is a lot of doom and gloom at the moment....

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On vacation....

global88

More like happy times for those who were expecting it and are cashed up now.
Great time to buy

Remember, whatever goes up must come down. Its a matter of seperating greed from logic and some luck thrown in.

ruben

There will be more falls to come. I would imagine the cashed up ones will be waiting in the wings for a while longer.

mudcrab

shares will go down, then they will come up again, it is a cycle, hang on to what you have, and if you've got spare cash, BUY, BUY, BUY.............

z80

only problem with cash is you get a cramp counting it all...

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On vacation....

mal

Z80 hope you are right!!!!!

Have decided to sell my home in the process of doing renos right now and intend to have it on the market as soon as pos
Will rent for a while pick up some bargain shares (good shares)
The prob I see is the property market is way over priced but the interest rates are held artifically low by the termoil so more people put money into realestate then POP
WE ARE IN FOR THE RIDE OF OUR LIVES

z80

Don't do it on my gut feel mate...would hate it to be wrong for you...

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On vacation....

mal

There are other reasons but I wont go into them but life is a gamble if I am wrong so be it

Have done my sums and will still be able to survive even IF

Have taken the chance in the past a few times and it has paid of (after a lot of thought)so wish me luck or break a leg

global88

I have a feeling you may be doing the right thing at the right time.
Having said that, it is a large risk your taking.

My feelings are that interest rates are going to keep climbing, there will be heaps of morgagee auctions comming, house prices will fall, the economy will go into the resession we had to have, libs will reminding us of who we voted for (even though they probably didnt want to win the last election because they knew what was comming and prefered to blame labour for it) and when the US suffers it will do what it does best. Attack Iran.

Just my thoughts

ruben

You are not alone with your thoughts. A couple of mates 6 months ago have cashed in on their properties for unheard of amounts and are sitting back waiting for the market to turn.

pieces

Heres a little read makes you want to go and wash some tins out ready.

Hope this works
You have to be a member of hotcopper

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thr...=610748#207287

z80

Property is heating up due to shares shitting themselves....

just been offered 5 times what i paid for a house 10 years ago.

have decided to sell it.

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On vacation....

global88

Congrats z80, take the money and run.

If things turn in the property market you will be laughing.

Sell high, buy low.....