The Writing On The Wall Just Became Bolder - Nine & Southern Cross

[mtv]

Nine Entertainment has taken a 9.99 per cent stake in regional broadcaster Southern Cross Media, in the first of expected moves in the sector as players position themselves ahead of a likely change in ownership rules.

Nine acquired the shares from Macquarie Group for $1.15 each, a three cent discount to the target's closing price on Thursday, paying $88.3 million for the entire stake.

[gordon_s1942]

I can hardly wait to hear Escape_from_Oz's and others 'take' on this purchase.

As they used to say on Laugh In, VERRRRY INTERESTING.......................

[Antennaman]

Not on topic, but interesting, non-the-less:

[OSIRUS]

I can hardly wait to hear Escape_from_Oz's and others 'take' on this purchase.

As they used to say on Laugh In, VERRRRY INTERESTING.......................

Brings back memories ......

[lsemmens]

I always enjoyed those two. That's one show that the PC brigade would have a field day with if they tried to broadcast it today.

[gordon_s1942]

Laugh In was one of the US few shows that ever emulated British Comedy shows like 'Till Death us do Part' and 'Steptoe and Son' with their often full on Double Entrende remarks and stabs at Society in general.
Of course a bit of 'Flashing the Flesh' didnt hurt either..........and some of the women werent that bad looking either..............


But in response to the posting that Telstra MAY sell its share of Foxtel due to Foxtel 'Stuggling Financialy', my question is that if it(Foxtel) is bad as they say, who would want to buy it?
I wonder if some of their problems is due to them paying out those huge sums buying up almost every sport starting with Tiddleywinks but there arent the audience numbers to pay for it ??

While competition does keep prices down but no matter what it is, there are base costs that must be met and with our small population, push the prices too low and it will kill the market rather than it becoming cheaper.

[Escape_from_Oz]

What is there ti say? We knew this was going to happen, the interesting part is did Nine Ent Co biggest share holder back (WIN + defacto owner DB) this action that the NEC management did?

We already know that SCMA wants to split the TV side from the Radio side and then off load the TV ops, we also know that no party wants to do a deal with a potential Foxtel owned Network 10 which again leaves WIN in a consume or be consumed position.

The only other interesting part is will Seven Media Group buy the SCTV channels that are under the Seven branding ... Or will Prime get a hold of those channels once the 75% rule is abolished.

[Escape_from_Oz]

As for Telstra wanting out of Foxtel, does anyone blame them? With NBN force use of TELSTRA HFC (also Optus HFC) which also means for every cable STU in operation they now have to pay NBN for access fees to the HFC network, and despite what they claim is a rise in subs (which it's not just second STU's in current premises) Telstra want out as they no longer have a good relationship with News Corp, if they can IPO it they can make some serious money, if they sell there ownership ti News Corp they can make good money, the issue with both is will ACCC allow News to buy it outright? Probably not, and with an IPO they would have to continue partial ownership for an extended period and slowly sell it off.

If it was an IPO, would you be interested in buying an allocation of shares?

[Smacca]

The only other interesting part is will Seven Media Group buy the SCTV channels that are under the Seven branding ... Or will Prime get a hold of those channels once the 75% rule is abolished.

The fate of SCTV(7) is interesting if SCA sells their Ten stations to Nine and WIN adopts Ten affiliation. WIN is the only network left that is best suited to operate both the SCTV(7) and jointly-owned Ten Digital stations in each of the Darwin, Tassie and Central markets. Prime could buy them, but they don't have the capacity to operate Channel Ten as well without some pretty major upgrades. I also can't imagine Nine Darwin, Nine Tassie (if that happens) or Imparja would be interested in operating their joint Ten's either. WIN has the capacity and they would most definitely operate a Seven in some markets as it draws good audience numbers and has loyal followings. Darwin is the most interesting of them all as Nine is already present there.

Long story short, Nine and WIN can co-exist in the same market with WIN taking on Seven and Ten channels. But Nine and Prime7 can't without some huge investment from Prime.

We could potentially see:

Tasmania:
WIN 7
Nine (previously SCTV)
TDT 10

Darwin:
WIN 7 (previously SCTV)
Nine
DTD 10

SA:
WIN 7
WIN 9
WIN 10 (all previously SCA)

Central:
WIN 7 (previously SCTV)
Imparja 9
CDT 10

While the remaining parts of the WIN Network could be WIN Ten with exception to Eastern SA and Griffith.

[Escape_from_Oz]

Interesting summation about what potentially could end up happening.

That said I have a feeling that nothing will happen for at least the next 6 months due to all the stuff going on today and innthw following months on Canberra, I doubt any legislation regarding media reforms will be put to both houses in the short term and potentially 6 to 10 months.

[Smacca]

You could be right, but let's not forget that WIN's affiliation deal with Nine, and SCA's affiliation deal with Ten, are both null and void at the end of June. So regardless of legislation surrounding mergers and reach rules, we're no doubt going to see some changes in the next few months.

[Escape_from_Oz]

wont matter because they rules wont be changed that fast, if current Govt wins July 2 election with a brand new senate (and we don't know which way that will end up) they are not going to push through the rules changes as the first sign of Govt business and should the other side of politics wins we do not know at present what there policy view is on media reforms are.

Should the current PM's bluff be called by the cross bench then I suspect the election will be around October and if that is the case should they win will they be able to negotiate with the new half senate members which get signed up from July 1 2017 etc and again should the other side win we still do not know what there policy reviews on media reform are.

So from the looks of it Nine and WIN might have to do another 6 to 12 month deal and or Nine and SCMA do a new deal (which I suspect will be blocked by WIN + defacto BD share owner) or WIN + a potentially Foxtel controlled Ten enter in agreement.

Which is why I mentioned in the other thread that WIN is looking to start a new exclusive to WIN network general entertainment channel.

[Xplorer]

The fate of SCTV(7) is interesting if SCA sells their Ten stations to Nine and WIN adopts Ten affiliation. WIN is the only network left that is best suited to operate both the SCTV(7) and jointly-owned Ten Digital stations in each of the Darwin, Tassie and Central markets. Prime could buy them, but they don't have the capacity to operate Channel Ten as well without some pretty major upgrades. I also can't imagine Nine Darwin, Nine Tassie (if that happens) or Imparja would be interested in operating their joint Ten's either. WIN has the capacity and they would most definitely operate a Seven in some markets as it draws good audience numbers and has loyal followings. Darwin is the most interesting of them all as Nine is already present there.

Long story short, Nine and WIN can co-exist in the same market with WIN taking on Seven and Ten channels. But Nine and Prime7 can't without some huge investment from Prime.

We could potentially see:

Tasmania:
WIN 7
Nine (previously SCTV)
TDT 10

Darwin:
WIN 7 (previously SCTV)
Nine
DTD 10

SA:
WIN 7
WIN 9
WIN 10 (all previously SCA)

Central:
WIN 7 (previously SCTV)
Imparja 9
CDT 10

While the remaining parts of the WIN Network could be WIN Ten with exception to Eastern SA and Griffith.

What's your view on WA country with GWN, Win and Ten?

No one has mentioned them, so, do you think there will be any changes/merging going on?

[Smacca]

I don't think anything will change in regional WA. If WIN had a choice to provide Nine or Ten programming, they'd go with Nine for better ratings. Prime/GWN would undoubtedly prefer having a 50% stake in a joint-venture Nine instead of the current joint-venture Ten, but I can't see WIN giving up that market share to be honest.

Mildura is in the same boat as WA with Prime, WIN and a joint-venture Ten. They'd want to keep their current arrangement, surely.

[gordon_s1942]

I am having a wild guess here that the all the Broadcasters either deal through a distributor or direct with the company/channel who makes the program they want to screen on their channel.
Say Bold and the Beautiful that runs on TEN is bought from whoever to be screened exclusively for a period of time.
When that contract runs out, unless there is some Law or 'Gentlemens Agreements' in place, it would be available to the highest bidder and depending on how popular it is, one season would see it on NINE, another on SEVEN but that never seems to happen does it ??

Now each of the Commercial Broadcasters have almost equal coverage areas in all Markets today across Australia so its not the Channel thats worth the money, its the PROGRAMS they run !!!
So, is WIN better than PRIME or TEN, no their not except maybe in their management of the business itself but their 'reading' of the Market and buying suitable programs is definitely major factor in their profitability.
I have specifically ignored the ABC and SBS as they are run under different criteria.

[Escape_from_Oz]

and now this


I forgot which thread it was earlier where discussion took place about News Corp wanting to buy out Seven and Nine, at the time I said both FTA are not keen to sell and that Telstra was looking at option to exit
Foxtel but was shouted and then then howled down by the naysayers ... typical that those with vested interests are the ones that are always negative ...

Their is also something fishy going on at the "Strawberry Hill's" compound at Elizabeth St, you know the one with the big ikn red sign that says "NEWSPOLL".

Then there is the often forgotten about "non-compete" agreement which was signed in 1996 amongst all the then pay TV groups (Australis Media (Galaxy), Optus Vision (Optus), Seven (Public), Nine (PBL), Telstra, News Limited (Foxtel) owners and the commercial FTA networks, I wonder if those at managers oops I mean now executives (well its 20 years since launch) will remember that the deal was for 30 years, which places the agreement to end March 2026.

[gordon_s1942]

Then there is the often forgotten about "non-compete" agreement which was signed in 1996 amongst all the then pay TV groups (Australis Media (Galaxy), Optus Vision (Optus), Seven (Public), Nine (PBL), Telstra, News Limited (Foxtel) owners and the commercial FTA networks, I wonder if those at managers oops I mean now executives (well its 20 years since launch) will remember that the deal was for 30 years, which places the agreement to end March 2026.

Not that I didnt think there was some such arrangement in place when I said about TV channels never seem to 'poach' popular programs when they come up for renewal but that said, this 'agreement' might be today be considered a 'Restriction of Trade' or 'Price Fixing' for want of a better description unless of course it was approved by someone like the ACCC which I dont think existed 30 years ago or did it??

[SpankedHam]

It wasn't an anti-competitive instrument, it was a formalisation of what was already planned. Austar would operate in Regional Australia, and Foxtel would operate in all the other areas that Austar didn't want to know about and the metro areas. Neither of them had any plans to sell into each other's areas so even without the agreement there wouldn't have been any competition.

If Austar and Foxtel were forced to compete earlier on, what has now happened simply would have happened more quickly - only Foxtel remains. Foxtel would have steam rolled Austar flat.

[Escape_from_Oz]

No there was a non compete in 1996 which last for 30 years for there to be no "rival Australian based news channel" amongst those companies which explains why when Telstra did T-Box they had to use a "white label" for Bigpond News which was essentially Sky News Australia.

The pay TV agreement for carriage is different, remember Foxtel are crapping their pants right now and Sky NEws (plus the additional channels they produce) cost News Corp big money, its relativity cheap Nine, Seven and BSkyB to operate and as such why would they want to sell it to News Corp, the only reason would be to break that remaining 10 year non compete.

Foxtel should Telstra exit have a plan and that is to rebrand the pay TV company simply as "FOX Australia" and take what they can channel wise as in house.

Austar was born from the remains of Australis Media (Galaxy) CETV and ECTV which both then formed AUSTAR under Liberty Media ownership. From memory the way that worked was:

PBL Media (Packer) got control of the satellite licence (which was owned by Australis Media re: Galaxy) which then on-sold it to Foxte, ECTV got a temporary deal from Optus Vision which inturn Optus was then able to launch Optus Vision satellite service called VIP
which failed and was then merged into Optus Aurora (which included ABC, SBS, Imparga and who ever else paid Optus for access to the satellite), CETV had the 2300Mhz licences (and use it for regional MDS "Microwave" pay TV and also on Gold Coast and got the metro version of that spectrum), CETV and ECTV were then both bought by Telstra but Telstra had to sell it due to Foxtel and thus AUSTAR was born.

Austar did not want to do metro pay TV because they were restricted to 2300MHz MDS Microwave from Galaxy so they leased that spectrum to TARBS (remember them?, they went on to morph into UBI and now they are nowhere), the regional system used satellite (which PBL Media were not interested in) and then Optus and Austar formed the satellite group and onsold access to Foxtel.

Gees I know I am missing some thing but what a mess up that eventally all because and to where it is now:One day I will fix this up and provide all the known details but for now that is how it went down in 1998.

NBN Co using using 2300MHz for fixed wireless broadband, Optus using it for metro version and in regioal areas its 3500Mhz for Optus

[SpankedHam]

Your "No" appears to in reality be that we are talking about two different agreements, so "No" right back at you.