Perhaps, but I'm sure the US producers won't be able to resist making some hay, while the sun is shining. It is their nature.
Anyway, even if the USA can weather an oil-price war, and aren't reliant on OPEC oil; Australia and much of the world does rely on oil affected by the OPEC price, and we will feel the full brunt of a major increase.
The American producers are currently unable to meet the OPEC Pricing. OPEC reduced their pricing a few years ago because they were losing market share to America.
The increase in OPEC will increase the American share. Smart Countries will move suppliers, however Australia is too dumb.
Mr 672A (15-05-18)
Onefella….I know that on the surface the Middle East conflict(s) give the appearance of a conflict of cultures.
But religion is just used as a powerful tool to galvanise populations, and provide an endless supply of useful idiots…….like suicide bombers, or soldiers fighting for God and Country.
You may be familiar with the following quotation of Karl Marx:
Fact is, none of what is happening in the Middle East, or has happened in the past, has much to do with religion. Skirmishes in that region based on religion are nothing more than a side-show and a convenient diversion."Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, and the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opium of the people".
Geopolitics is a pretty dry subject so this needs to be brief so you don’t fall asleep halfway through
A lot of what is happening in the Middle East at the moment was forseen by a bloke called Halford John Mackinder in 1904.
You can get an idea of his thesis from this Wikipedia link:
There’s an interesting little paper here, which draws the theory more into modern times:Mackinder subsequently summarised his theory in 1919:
"Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island commands the world."
Any power which controlled the World-Island would control well over 50% of the world's resources. The Heartland's size and central position made it the key to controlling the World-Island.
Mackinder identified the geopolitical nightmare that was to haunt the world's two sea powers during the first half of the twentieth century—Great Britain and, later on, the United States. The nightmare was that if Germany or Russia were allowed to control East Europe then this could lead to the domination of the Eurasian land mass by one of these two powers as a prelude to mastery of the world.
Geopolitics and US Middle Eastern Policy: Mackinder and Brzezinski
In his 1997 book “The Grand Chessboard ”, former national security advisor under the Carter administration and informal Obama advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski highlights the importance of Eurasia for global US primacy.
Drawing heavily on Mackinder’s theory he states: "Geopolitics has moved from the regional to the global dimension, with preponderance over the entire Eurasian continent serving as the central basis for global primacy. The United States, a nonEurasian power, now enjoys international primacy, with its power directly deployed on three peripheries of the Eurasian continent […]. But it is on the globe’s most important playing field – Eurasia – that a potential rival to America might at some point arise". (Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1997): The Grand Chessboard. P.39)
From Brzezinski’s point of view, to retain its supremacy in Eurasia, the US has to prevent potential rivals, such as Russia, China, Iran and Turkey from gaining control or influence in the region.
Another more complicated (and drier) treatise here:
The Heartland Theory and the Present-Day Geopolitical Structure of Central Eurasia
And a good explanation here from Al-Jazeera in 2014:
Conquering Russia and the 'heartland'
What happens when US moralistic interventionism collides with Russian imperial inertia?
And some more interesting reading here:
NEW GREAT GAME
“Brzezinski predicted that the first great war of the 21st century would take place in this area of the globe and four years later, in the first year of the 21st century, the United States and its NATO allies invaded Afghanistan beginning an occupation that became the longest military operation in the history of America. Meet the New Great Game, same as the Old Great Game. This time it’s NATO against China, Russia and what might be loosely termed a ‘resistance bloc,’ but the idea is almost the same: dominate Central Asia-Caucasus and use it as pivot point to dominate the world.
MacKinders theory of the heartland still guides much of modern political and military thinking and planning.
It is control of the Heartland that is behind what we see in the Middle East today, not religion.
Sorry....but I did warn you that it was going to be dry
Last edited by Thala Dan; 11-05-18 at 11:21 PM.
Thala Dan, I'll have to have a read of your links and quotes later, but on the face of it, I can't see how the 'heartland' has anything to offer except religion and oil. The area is the most burnt-out, dysfunctional bit of earth going. At this point I can't quite see where the power comes from, except religion and oil.
Iran Sanctions Fallout: China Set To Replace Total In Giant Iran Gas Project, As Beijing Launches New Iran Train Route
According to Iran's PressTV, China’s state-owned CNPC - the world's third largest oil and gas company by revenue behind Saudi Aramco and the National Iranian Oil Company - is set to take over a leading role held by Total in a huge gas project in Iran should the French energy giant decide to quit amid US sanctions against the Islamic Republic.And just to make sure that trade relations between China and Iran only accelerate, China on Thursday launched a freight train service that connects its northern regions to Iran’s capital Tehran in what could be a major connectivity project of vital importance to the flow of trade between the two countries.
I guess things would get really interesting if the Israelis accidentally blew up a Chinese train on its way to Tehran.
There's that pesky "heartland" concept again.Iranian officials have indicated that the ultimate aim is to extend the rail route to Europe, positioning Iran on a key stretch to the continent, the Guardian wrote in an analysis on the development. These are seen as part of China’s efforts to revive the ancient Silk Road – a trans-Asian trade route that connected the east to Europe and the Mediterranean Sea.
Amerika dictating what/who/how European countries do business must end and hopefully trumps latest tantrum will bring closer the day that Europe finally abandons the US
It might be interesting if some fundamentalist Jihadi thinks of striking a blow at the great Shaitan. I, somehow, don't think that China will be as "gentle" in their retaliation as the west.
I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...
It's a bit of an interesting one. The train line already exists that connects Iran with the rest of the world.
You used to be able to catch a train from Moscow to Tehran. I almost took a train from Ashgabad to Tehran, but I couldn't organise a visa.
It was hard enough just getting kicked out of Turkmenistan back into Uzbekistan. I've been kicked out of most of the world's shittiest countries.
The Chinese use standard gauge as does Iran. But Kazakhstan, Uzebekistan and Turkmenistan use a slightly broader gauge, so they bogies will be changed at the Kazakh border and then back again at the Iranian border. The process at the Kazakh border is something which I can only describe as being as slow and painful as having the hairs plucked from your testicles by carefully and individually rolling each of them onto a matchstick.
Yes I am an agent of Satan, but my duties are largely ceremonial.
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