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Thread: Blackouts ARE Coming.

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    Default Blackouts ARE Coming.

    Saw some articles today of the AEMO's warnings about Blackouts.
    Inevitable for VIC and SA but warns of them in coming years for NSW. While it might sound dire to some, as a person that follows this with some interest, I was predicting it last summer. I said the next 5 years would bring darkness, AEMO have upped that with a 10 year warning.

    While they are saying NSW won't have blackouts for a few years, I think that is complete and utter Twaddle. They ran below reserve capacity so many days last year and DID have blackouts here which they said wouldn't happen and then tried to spin doctor them... of course.

    I am building a couple of generators ATM because I am far from convinced that these outages will be any further than this summer away and also that they will get far more frequent rather than a pone off due to an unforeseen failure like a storm or whatever. I am also going to look into some of the new inverters that will run direct off solar panels although I am sure the cost will be over the top and setting up something like a Big UPS on a couple of batteries with adequate chargers might be a lot cheaper. I have more than enough panels I could re configure to power everything bar the 3 phase AC. Looking at putting in a Big Single phase split to cover that and
    also pricing 3 Phase 20KW Gennys so I can run everything without a worry.

    The greenwashed will of course blame everything, especially coal stations which are hurriedly brought out of month balls and then over loaded when the unreliables fail to deliver, again, but will side step the documented FACT that wind turdbines on average only deliver 6-7% of their rated capacity.
    It's one thing to run a genny or solar setup to keep things running in a home, a whole different thing to keep businesses and industry going. Minute there is a power failure, Shops close, fuel can't be sold and things just grind to a halt.

    It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better even but the AEMO's own admittance.
    Knowing how they downplay everything, For them to even come out with this warning is a Very bad sign of what is to come. Going off grid is about to become a whole lot more popular and an industry that's about to go ballistic.

    Might be a good time to start importing some Diesel Generators.






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    Yawn, they said that last year, nothing happened much, at least not more than it has always been in this country.

    Just in the process of adding another 8 panels to charge my PHEV even if it is a bit cloudy. They were 100 bucks new.
    The PHEV was second hand but I managed to reset the battery BMU and it is like new again.
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    Doesn't help that Mortlake is offline for repairs
    Last edited by ol' boy; 23-08-19 at 08:57 AM.
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    although we are in QLD and so far unaffected by blackouts i still keep a small 3kw genset at the ready to keep our fridge / freezer going. Can do without everything else short term , we simply live out of our caravan in the back yard if need be.
    In our area there is so much solar that the local ripoff provider Ergon is limiting or knocking back some people's applications for new systems.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    Yawn, they said that last year, nothing happened much, at least not more than it has always been in this country.
    Couldn't agree more!
    I watched all the scaremongering on TV last night, actors buying gensets from Bunnings.
    Better than an infomercial

    Not sure about other areas, but Powercor have been preempting the Summer Peaks for years around here
    They truck in huge gensets to support the town, IF NEEDED.....

    Only power outages we get are fallen limbs from high wind days.
    Prior to that, we'd have a power outage from a cheap Chinese Transformer Powercor purchased second hand for the switchyard
    That has all been upgraded now.
    Last edited by ol' boy; 23-08-19 at 09:06 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by VroomVroom View Post
    although we are in QLD and so far unaffected by blackouts i still keep a small 3kw genset at the ready to keep our fridge / freezer going. Can do without everything else short term , we simply live out of our caravan in the back yard if need be.
    In our area there is so much solar that the local ripoff provider Ergon is limiting or knocking back some people's applications for new systems.
    Yeah. I have a 2kw for that. Have had to use it for the odd scheduled outage.
    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    Yawn, they said that last year, nothing happened much, at least not more than it has always been in this country.
    Electricity report should not be a cause for panic, with the chance of mass blackouts small

    Don't panic! The breathless reports about millions of Australians facing blackouts this summer are a tad overblown.

    Read the actual report by the Australian Energy Market Operator (known as AEMO) — and there it is, hidden in bold typeface, at the top of the key findings:

    "All regions other than Victoria [are] expected to meet the current reliability standard for electricity supply this summer" — and for the next 10 years.


    Sensationalist impending catastrophe reporting is the only thing that keeps the mainstream media breathing these days.

    OB....you got it.....INFOMERCIAL.......with a bit of help from their friends in the MSM, Bunnings might spend a few more advertising dollars on generators this summer.

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    Y2K all over again
    It was so good for business

    I couldn't stop thinking of the "Know a little bit, but not enough" people out there trying to supply their Switchboard from the Genset

    Last edited by ol' boy; 23-08-19 at 09:34 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    Yawn, they said that last year, nothing happened much, at least not more than it has always been in this country.
    Dunno what country you live in but there were significant blackouts that until all this unreliables cult belief started affecting peoples Minds, hadn't happened since the '70s. Sa VIC and NSW got hit with significant Blackouts....... Oh, I'm sorry, That's " Load shedding" Exactly the same as a blackout only ..... it's load shedding.
    One of those too out over 50K homes in the afternoon when the Pollie in charge said that morning at a press Conference there would be no blackouts!


    Doen't help that Mortlake is offline for repairs
    Which will be spin doctored to make out FF generation is unreliable and any blackouts are because of that.
    They of course hide the fact that the green goobers had a lot of these plants shut down, some said never to generate again and then when the whole unreliable crock was falling on it's face they hurriedly brought them out of mothballs and in some cases ran them harder than they had ever been pushed before. When they did fall over, that was the unreliability of FF generators and the ensuing power cuts were THEIR fault not the fact that the turdbines were Generation a whopping 12% of what they were supposed to at the time.

    They always talk about the installed capacity of turdbines never the actual amount of power they are putting into the system.... unless it's one of the rare days they are contributing something worthwhile.


    In our area there is so much solar that the local ripoff provider Ergon is limiting or knocking back some people's applications for new systems.
    This is happening in a lot of places and is the typical " Profits before all else" Bullshit of the whole green unreliables con job. Supposedly there is too much solar in one area for the wires and transformers to handle. What a Crock!
    If they really were about renewable power, Rooftop solar would be encouraged rather than subsidise far away solar farms.
    The excuse for limiting rooftop PV is the lines/ Grid can't take it which is pure and utter bullshit. The lines near solar farms can't take it either but they have no problem spending the hundreds of Millions to Billions ( yeah, it can be that much!) to upgrade them so they can. Upgrade the transformers and if need be the lines in the streets so they can absorb the PV power as well.
    It wouldn't need that much. Every area has a Town or an industrial area , school, Hospital, shopping centre that would absorb all the power from around it quite happily.

    If areas can handle the peak loads, they can handle the peak solar output and the ones that can't can be upgraded.
    That said, Many new homes are also being limited to 40A supplys now. Rather than allow for the future and possible solar feedback, they are pre building in excuses to knock it back. I guess $2.7BN in PROFITS last year wasn't enough for them.
    I laugh every time I hear some talking dick head talk about lowering power prices as If they couldn't possibly do it already.

    They want to be seen to be green but don't want people having PV any more than they have to allow it to keep up the ruse because it eats into their profits and revenue. If they can make a buck selling " Green power" ( who falls for that crap?) Fantastic. If they loose a buck wioth anything green, Need to squash that as much as possible and make any BS excuse to justify it.

    Watch any Mouthpiece talk about this and the first Diversionary and alamarst word they will use is " Safe". Like feeding rooftop PV into the grid is going to Kill people?

    What is safe about Blackouts trapping people in lifts and on trains and in blacked out shopping centres and taking out traffic lights, AC, water treatment plants and all the rest of it?

    Refrigeration is the one thing that is hard to live without today. Can use gas for Cooking and lighting as well but only one way to effectively refrigerate for the average home.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thala Dan View Post
    Electricity report should not be a cause for panic, with the chance of mass blackouts small



    Sensationalist impending catastrophe reporting is the only thing that keeps the mainstream media breathing these days.
    Normally i'd agree but in this case, I'd say they are spot on.
    I don't spose you watched the AEMO and RENEW live tracking of the national grid last summer or any other time and saw the hourly shortage warnings the AEMO were issuing, the massive power transfers going on trying to prop the grids up or how often The reserve capacity was less than half of what it was supposed to be.
    I don't spose you saw how pathetic the Turdbine input was most of the time and the pissweak ratio of installed capacity to actual generation it provided nor how many wind farms fell short of their allocated inputs causing the AEMO to issue contingency alerts for other generators to make up the short fall Nor some of the crazy wholesale rates that were being tendered when things were getting desperate. It's like watching a disaster unfolding in from of your eyes or a war game where they struggle to keep from getting over run.

    Right this minute VIC is running short and has 3 States propping it up with elevated wholesale pricing levels as a result.

    .


    The only people getting conned by the mainstream media are the people that believe the " It will be fine" BS they are spinning.

    Who wants to put their money where their mouth is about what blackouts we will have this summer?
    Lets define the size ( homes businesses without power) the duration and the frequency so we have a solid measure to go from. I have $1000 bucks to put in an escrow account that says there will be frequent, wide spread blackouts in VIC, SA and NSW this summer. Define The paramaters, put your money in the account and give me the details where to put mine and we are on.

    For those so sure this is media Hype and believe the EIeio that the lights will " Probably" ( there is the tell and the out for them right there) put your money where your mouth is and we'll call it March 1st next year and see what was hype and what reality turned out to be. I'll be more than happy to not only put my generators to use and enjoy having the lights still on but get back a big chunk of the investment in them by making this bet.

    Watch for when Bunnings and everyone else sells out of generators and they are doing storys on people in multiple states and locations in the Hundred thousand plus and then come back and tell me it was all sensationalist hype.

    Put your Money down boys and lets see whos right and who is full of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by george65 View Post
    Which will be spin doctored to make out FF generation is unreliable and any blackouts are because of that.
    No idea where you get that from??
    It just needs repairing

    Same has 5% of all Wind Turbines are generally offline because of a fault

    But now that you mention it, i guess a Wind Farm has some redundancy built in by the sheer number of Turbines.
    Yet on a dead calm or excessively windy day they produce zero.
    No perfect solution
    If u want to go on an expedition get a Land Rover, if u want to come home from an expedition get a Landcruiser!

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    Here is the Current snapshot of the 3 main states at 9:10 am.
    The grid is being propped up by Qld and Tas ATM and it's 9 am in winter when there is lots of gas and wood heating going on. Just wait till the hot weather hits and eveyone is using the only way to cool which is electric.

    NSW

    $100.98

    Demand
    9,401

    Generation
    7,797

    Wind and Other
    559



    VIC
    $105.03

    Demand
    6,257

    Generation
    4,766

    Wind and Other
    535




    SA
    $83.90

    Demand
    1,415

    Generation
    1,235

    Wind and Other
    735




    Now who want's my $1000 and is ready to pony up theirs? Don't be shy now or afraid to stand by your beliefs and back them up.
    I'm happy to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' boy View Post
    No idea where you get that from??
    It just needs repairing
    That was the excuse given by the green washed last summer and in multiple events before when the grid fell over. They always blame it on the FF generators and never admit their Turdbines fell over and failed to deliver which was what caused the whole problem.

    Same has 5% of all Wind Turbines are generally offline because of a fault
    Unfortunately trudbines don't even come near 20% of installed capacity Average generation of capacity so that's bit of a Hardly normal excuse like Imports without GST affecting local retailers like him.

    No perfect solution
    BINGO!

    Coal, Hydro, solar wind nor anything else is perfect but the greenwashed leftist PC zealots keep pushing it down our throats that Unreliables are perfect and try to cover up and spin doctor their faults with their typical lies and BS.

    Like I have said many times, It they really wanted to cut emissions and save the planet, before Blighting the landscape with turdbines or solar farms, we could cover every roof top that was viable with panles which would put the power where it was needed and could still be transmitted to other areas just like it is from power stations now.
    We could then wind back the FF generators, just like has always been done to cater to the load and make substantial emissions savings right there. At Night and on the crappy days we wind up the FF generators again and we have a stable, reliable and cheap power supply.

    The green cult zealots aren't happy with anything but their totalitarian impractical idea being seen as the only solution and the power cos don't want to miss their chunk of the pie either .
    As such not only are we barely scratching the potential emissions reductions, we are Fking the grid completely and driving business and investment away from the country when we have huge resources and ability to make the problem a complete non issue.

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    Lets ask those who actually research and know a bit about this matter and maybe you should ACTUALLY READ properly about those "warnings" and how it is dealt with:



    Key findingsSummer 2019-20• AEMO forecasts tightly balanced supply and demand in several NEM regions for summer 2019-20, withall regions other than Victoria expected to meet the current reliability standard of expected USE not exceeding 0.002%
    The assumed extended outages of either of these units, in combination with a number of otheroperating risks, including the continued deterioration of the reliability of aging brown coal units,result in Victoria having an expected USE of 0.0026% for the coming summer.
    ...oh the panic, oh the pain

    A few individuals for a few hours without power has never been a real problem.

    A REAL problem is the lack of water lately in this country, so why not whinge and rant on about should be done about that?
    The ongoing draught is here to stay and effects almost everybody here, some way or the other.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 23-08-19 at 12:52 PM.
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    when i installed the solar and they had to rebuild the meter box
    as they were doing it i had them install a switch over for the lights
    which is connected to a battery bank with a inverter connected.

    so when we do have a blackout i throw the switch and i still have lights.

    My computers have a ups setup with extra battery bank to run for 10 odd hours.

    I also have the same for the Tv and entertainment setup

    well everything bar the fridge and frezer have a backup
    and if it is going to be out for a while i have a small genset for them.

    so couldnt care less if we have blackouts

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    That was actually really common in the 70's and 80's
    With the old Federal N Series switchboards

    The main switch would be a 3-way switch like a HWS Day/Night switch

    Mains / Off / Aux

    So a mechanical lockout from back feeding the grid or having both services on together.
    Then there was a Male Inlet same as a Caravan mounted near the switchboard.

    Then that concept seemed to go away, i cant remember if that was because of regulation or people just stopped doing it?
    If u want to go on an expedition get a Land Rover, if u want to come home from an expedition get a Landcruiser!

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    I purchased a small genset to keep our freezers running during an extended blackout. It's still in the box in the shed, never been out, That was in 2003.
    I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...

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    Quote Originally Posted by fandtm666 View Post
    so couldnt care less if we have blackouts
    Unless you need to use your internet, and the components outside your house don’t have power so can’t get online.

    Or need to use your mobile phone, and the local towers’ battery backup runs out.

    Or you need to get groceries or pay for something with a credit card, and can’t as the shops have no power.

    Or you need fuel, and the pumps don’t work because there is no power.

    Or you need to drive somewhere is a hurry, and find all traffic signals out so nothing is moving.

    Plus the other hundreds of necessary uses for power outside your home, meaning plenty of reasons that you should care if there are mass blackouts.

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    All in a sentence :

    This summer, Victoria is at the highest risk of blackouts, particularly if two power stations — AGL's Loy Yang A2 (500MW) in Gippsland and Origin's gas plant in Mortlake (259MW) — are not returned to service after earlier faults this year.

    Both are due to be back online by the end of December.
    And a link to an ABC article saying the above for those that think windmills are good and any News Corp newspaper link is lies created by the Liberal Party.


    Of course they blame coal plants for all the problems, but don't mention that the Andrews government has tripled royalties on coal so that no companies want anything to do with it. And of course subsidise solar at the same time. So of course the end result of the equation is : Triple the royalties on coal + huge subsidies on solar = renewables are great. Its nearly as funny as the rich and famous flying around in private jets but saying its ok because they buy carbon credits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peteramjet View Post
    Unless you need to use your internet, and the components outside your house don’t have power so can’t get online.

    Or need to use your mobile phone, and the local towers’ battery backup runs out.
    ???????

    Power goes out, Mobile Phone still works, Mobile Internet still works, Laptop still works
    I think its unreal now when the power goes out, if your on your laptop, you don't even know it has
    Everything works exactly the same
    In fact, i use it to check the outage and reconnection times.

    Just one advantage of Mobile Internet
    BTW the Towers have Batteries and Genset the size of a shipping container.
    At least ours does. It could run for days and after fires years ago, it is now a stipulation it does
    Last edited by ol' boy; 23-08-19 at 04:52 PM.
    If u want to go on an expedition get a Land Rover, if u want to come home from an expedition get a Landcruiser!

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