5G - Will Technology Kill Technology

[jgm]

I remember attending a seminar in the late 90's about the growth of personal computing, and the issues around IP addresses. As I recall the presenter was a visiting British professor, and he was taking us through the changes since the 50's and into the future. In the early days we started with one computer serving many people. This had gradually got to the stage of one computer to one person where it had stalled for several years. His thesis was that this is a very powerful model when the user has ownership of all facets (ie the equipment & the data). He then expounded the theory that there would be a rapid growth in the one person to many devices situation (which has proved to be the case).

The major concern for us network professionals was the looming loss of available IP addresses and the way to move to IPv6. This was before the advent of private IP addressing which has largely paused the necessity. My observation is that we have really just started the one user to many devices, one or two of which are mobile. However as we enter the next phase, we will see many more network connected devices, the majority of which will be statically located. The challenge for carriers is the way to handle this. Can you imagine a scenario where you have 20 or more devices in a home (whitegoods, entertainment, light & power etc), all having their own 5G connection? This would not be on anyone's radar, as the preferred situation would be one or two devices tethering to the carrier.

There are several main issues for network providers, centered around speed, capacity and PRICING. IF the NBN had been implemented PROPERLY, the phone networks would have to be pricing their offerings better than what the OP wished. Even at those rates, a proper fixed network could undercut them by at least 50% and STILL make a profit. This is because for the fixed network, the vast majority of the fixed costs have passed, and they are basically only paying for maintenance. Wireless costs increase massively with EVERY upgrade. Physics dictate that as you increase speed or bandwidth, more base stations have to be provided. End user equipment has to be changed (not just upgraded - try getting 5G on your 5 year old phone). The telcos have been hoodwinking end users for years into changing their handset far more often than necessary. Most of the marketing focuses on the NEW features on the LATEST device, where the real reason is that the telcos require users to keep spending to pay for their (the telcos) network changes. Going back to my earlier thread, this provides a major problem for the telcos. How can they profit from all the statically located devices using their networks? Offering a new phone every year with upgraded features doesn't work for a refrigerator that typically lasts for 10 or more years. If they can't offset their costs with the sale of end user devices, how do they recover them?