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Thread: Australia losing friends!

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by wotnot View Post
    Just about this, I reckon I'm seeing too much flux and relocation going on, to suggest EU markets will be all that important to us in a short number of yearstime. I had to look it up or course, but France is 4th/5th in the list of EU countries when it comes to worth/volume of AU exports, and only 17th overall when it comes to countries AU exports to. More and more companies/operations are pulling out of CN and going to India, Malaysia, Thailand etc etc, and as these manufacturing industries move like this, AU will probably see more lucrative trade with much closer destinations...who knows. Time as always, will tell.
    With door step I meant France will have a major say when it comes to convincing the EU about tariffs and sanctions applied to us because we don't wont to commit to climate change actions.
    What we have with poorer Asian countries we already have.
    Not sure if they really need our wine when they can brew metho far cheaper.
    The EU has the money and you will be surprised how many Euro ppl adore AU. Was a great pick up line back then when I told girls I was born here until they found out how much of a geek I am.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 18-09-21 at 11:56 PM.
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    Yellow Submarine - that's a bit racist We just call them Chinese.

    Quote Originally Posted by lsemmens View Post
    China isn't going to invade anywhere, just like the USSR didn't invade.
    I will remind you that it is mutually assured destruction that stopped them invading. The Polish expected the allies to liberate them from the Soviet Union.
    It didn't happen for economic reasons but also because the Soviet Union was perceived to put up too much of a fight. I might have suggested a lot of Russians would have shot their commissars and surrendered peacefully had their been a good meal and some freedom in it.

    The pivot of the cold war was Berlin. I always thought it amusing that little piece of freedom lived inside East Germany and the Soviets didn't move harder on it.
    The question is, will the Chinese learn from this piece of history. They appear to be serious about Taiwan. The question is, if they do make a move, will the USA blink? What is the game plays here and if t moves into a conventional conflict, who else gets dragged in?
    USA, UK and Aus are in. The question is, what does Russia do? While I'd expect them to be a good ally to China and put up a good fight against the USA, they probably don't want to go head to head with them.

    But if China does move on Taiwan, that instantly restarts the Korean war. USA bases sitting on China's doorstep. The North Koreans are going to be sitting very still because the slightest move towards the 38th is going to make uncle sam's trigger finger very itchy.

    I might think the USA will tit for tat like Isreal. (though they often impose a 30% retaliation factor).
    If China hits a USA ship or aircraft, then they will strike back and even the score. At some point China is more likely to blink first as my guess.

    The fun part is when shit gets out of control. A large scale conventional conflict in the China sea and South Korea. I would expect South Korea to fall very quickly.
    It's at that point that China and NK will have the upper hand. The Sea of Japan will be the playground and Russia is going to have front row seats.

    I doubt China will take Taiwan, it's just too hard to hang onto. Korea on the other hand, you can dust up that place and it's not China

    If you're going to play the game, then you might as well throw in Hong Kong. You've got a lot of very cranky people there who are not going to let much more slip. You can imagine the Brits offering them back democracy, but strategically, like Taiwan, it's too hard to hang on to.

    So where will the line be drawn?
    Well, I doubt USA is going to invade China and China is not going to invade USA. that's a fight neither can win.
    Like a nuclear strike. There is no one missile. China has threatened to retaliate nuclear if anybody stops them taking Taiwan.
    That is a bluff. The moment you put a missile in the air, there will be a nuclear retaliation. Nobody blinks. Everybody loses.

    I doubt USA is nuke china unless their is a first strike. China has to decide, one missile or all of them. It's likely they might try a non-US target like Japan or the Philippians. All in and now India, Russia and the UK are going to DEFCON5.

    Given that most missiles are submarine based, there isn't going to be a lot of time to react. Anything that so much as hints of nuclear is probably going to escalate very very quickly. China moves on Taiwan and the USA will know before they get there and blockade them.
    If China lobs a nuke at Japan and the response is likely to be something like Shanghai gets some redevelopment. If Uncle Sam manages to get patriots into the air and takes out a first strike and doesn't retaliate, then this is a situation that would be very bad for China.
    Uncle Sam with both barrels loaded and an excuse to make some big demands.


    It's rather fun to think about where this could go.
    The most likely outcome is that nobody makes any sudden moves. China is creeping slowly, frog soup. At some point in time they're going to cross the line and test the water. Either the west tries the softly softly approach and they will just keep pushing like Iran. Or somebody is going to call the bluff. Game on.

    Dirty Harry has got it.
    Do you think you can win that war? Do you feel lucky punk?

    China, no - back down - you have it good now, you have a lot more to lose.
    USA, #### yeah. But they worry about what Russia will do.
    Russia - oh shit, we don't want to get involved. But if you ruining Uncle Sam's day, that will work out ok for us. Please don't ask us to help.

    Russia has lots of resources and they are very close to China. If China invades Russia, then what does USA do?

    A lot of wildly hypothetical ideas. Watch this space
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    Quote Originally Posted by trash View Post

    I doubt USA is nuke china unless their is a first strike. China has to decide, one missile or all of them. It's likely they might try a non-US target like Japan or the Philippians. All in and now India, Russia and the UK are going to DEFCON5.




    It's rather fun to think about where this could go.

    You are missing a small country: Australia!
    Both Japan and Philippines(Duterte caved) have US military support just like us.

    Don't quite share your sense of humour.

    For all we know 3 Chinese Nuclear powered AND ARMED subs could be parked 50km outside of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane respectively, waiting fo Poo Bear's orders.

    Comparisons with Russia after WW2 do not fit here.
    For Russia nukes were all about defence against the imperialist power USA, so a balance of power was achieved, nothing else.

    For China today there is one goal only, to take over the world. Initially with trade and by buying up shyte but if small countries like Australia don't play the game, it looks increasingly like military options are on the table and I am assured China does care what the Western World thinks about them, as they think they have been bullied by the West far too long.
    For the CCP it is pay back time!
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 19-09-21 at 11:43 AM.
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    Looks like we could be losing friends with Malaysia and Indonesia as well:


    It seems Asian countries don't think we have a right to defend ourselves even if it will take 20 years before we could make even a tiny dent with a few subs.

    Why don't we just scrap these 'deals' altogether and quietly lease subs from the US and France, right now?!
    I thought this military stuff was suppose to be 'need to know' anyway.

    The Yanks are coming here soon because we are an important strategical spot for them and we don't have a choice for that.. They could just bring some of their subs with them and nobody here needs to know because they won't surface. The subs have airlocks to swap crew and bring in supplies.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 19-09-21 at 11:37 AM.
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    Evidently the name of the game is confinement and blockade, subs cannot entirely hide in the South China Sea due to its depth, so as long as you keep them there you can keep tabs on them
    India is at present building a naval base on an island to be able to stop China accessing the Northern Indian ocean

    So i would surmise that if oil was blockaded to China, that China would not be in a very good position to offer a prolonged war
    Last edited by allover; 19-09-21 at 12:25 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by allover View Post
    Evidently the name of the game is confinement and blockade, subs cannot entirely hide in the South China Sea due to its depth, so as long as you keep them there you can keep tabs on them
    India is at present building a naval base on an island to be able to stop China accessing the Northern Indian ocean

    So i would surmise that if oil was blockaded to China, that China would not be in a very good position to offer a prolonged war
    That could be. But I'm not sure if oil supply is as important atm for a basically sea engagement. Certainly in past wars it was vital.

    We are in a position where OUR strategic supply is in the US. At least I think it is.
    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    In 2016 when Malcolm Turnbull signed off on the French deal I knew it wont see the light. Maybe at that time if they had gone with the Japanese offer at half the costs it would have eventuated, but the politically supper conservatives couldn't swallow a deal with Japan, so they went for the 90 Billion French offer, almost 10% of the GDP. and by the time 2 decades later these subs would have been obsolete.. Like the NBN and 5G. or Astrazeneca and Pfizer (sorry cant help myself) By the time these nuclear powered subs will go in to service they would properly be obsolete to a certain degree, you could always moor them at Garden Island and connect them to the Sydney grid, finally nuclear power and using our own uranium.
    Last edited by B52; 19-09-21 at 03:27 PM.

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    you could always moor them at Garden Island and connect them to the Sydney grid, finally nuclear power and using our own uranium.
    LOL...that's the ticket, and if one of them goes critical just point it out to sea through the heads and wait for the fireworks =)

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    and NZ have said they wont let the subs into their waters


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    Quote Originally Posted by fandtm666 View Post
    and NZ have said they wont let the subs into their waters

    Yeah. mentioned here a day or two ago.....

    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    Seriously France is upset !!!!
    They quoted a price and delivery schedule, and then missed every timeline.
    Not to mention they kept jacking up the price.
    They broke the contract not us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    You are missing a small country: Australia!
    It's the opposite of Hong Kong. It's too hard to hang onto. We couldn't take Hong Kong back from China or hold Korea.
    Japan and the Philippians would be much harder to hold. Not so hard to attack.

    Yeah, sure China could attack Australia but not without everybody seeing them coming.
    I don't think we'd do well against off shore attacks, but they just couldn't sustain them.
    You might compare China to Japan in WWII.
    .
    Comparisons with Russia after WW2 do not fit here.
    For Russia nukes were all about defence against the imperialist power USA, so a balance of power was achieved, nothing else.
    When it comes to nukes, the comparison is not a lot different.
    You can't take over the world if you nuke it.

    You have imperialism of USA and you have imperialist states. The nukes are to protect the regime, not the territory.
    And yeah, I agree with Russia having nuke to put the brakes on the USA, but Stalin with his finger an the button. I wonder what the play might have been if the balance of power was unequal in the other direction after WWII. The nukes also protected the state from their people.

    So in terms of strategic defense, nuclear is what you do if the threat is nuclear. Regardless of if you are an aggressor or the defender, nukes stop nuclear attack.
    Nukes limit the damage of conventional war. If you are going to lose a conventional war in a bad way, then the last last shot is going to be a big one.
    If however surrender is going to be a better option, then you back down and hope for the best. Japan had no idea if the world was going to be a better place for them after the war. It didn't work out so well for East Germany and Poland. If you're surrendering to the USSR you might as well keep shooting. They're going to shoot you anyway, why make it easy for them.

    So in terms of world security. Nukes only protect China from nuclear attack. They're not a protection for aggression.

    Yeah China has dreams of becoming the world leader. They might like the idea of taking over the world, kind of like white people 200 years ago
    The problem is that us Lowai have a lot of cool shit and a lot more firepower. While Russia might appear to be a friend right now, they're white too and the moment they suspect you're yellow, you're gunna have a more white guns pointed in your direction.

    I think the single greatest weapon the USA has is the dollar. They can literally steal money from China by printing shitloads of US dollars.
    If China pegs it's currency to the Greenback, then deflating the dollar puts their finger on scale and china has to pay or adjust their rate.
    USA can just keep pushing and China has to keep paying. When USA takes back their own cash and inflates the dollar.
    China can't afford to float the yuan, if they do their labour costs are subject to a level playing field.

    Malaysia - pfft. Muslim nationalism and boganism. They just haven't noticed that Australia doesn't give a fvck about them.
    You want to work together, we're good. If you don't, we're still good without you.

    Indonesia is a bit different. They have a lot more people and there is pressure on resources and the big desert to the south is tempting and not a lot of white people defend it. But Indonesia is under no illusion that Australia can defend itself against them. We don't have a lot of people but we do have a lot of bullets and we're a better shot

    To be honest, I'm not sure what China is thinking. They make it clear they want Taiwan, but I can't see much logic in wanting it.
    Integrating Hong Kong completely, I'm also not sure why they haven't done more towards that.

    Offering to be friends with the Taliban.. Russia and the USA must be laughing, "Yeah yeah.. they need your help. Take your best shot with them. "
    I look forward to them fvcking up each other's shit.

    I think it all comes down to Taiwan. That's the focus. How prepared is the world to stop them taking it by force.
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    Seriously, why is Xi Jinping so obsessed with Taiwan.
    Did Tsai Ing-wen screw his wife or sister ?

    A small Island of people who hate China and, unlike Hong Kong, no real benefit to them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reschs View Post
    Seriously, why is Xi Jinping so obsessed with Taiwan.
    Did Tsai Ing-wen screw his wife or sister ?

    A small Island of people who hate China and, unlike Hong Kong, no real benefit to them.
    The Chinese have always viewed Taiwan as a province of China, and therefore their national ego will not allow them to let go.

    Taiwan is the clear leader in world manufacturing of computer chips, especially high end ones. Samsung also has a foundry capable of building these things, but it operates on a much smaller scale. Other countries are miniscule in comparison....

    I'm not going to provide links, they are everywhere....

    Australia also subscribes to the "One China Policy" in a different way to the US and some other countries, and while we do, we have little leverage. Or in fact, right to intervene. We should change that policy, but given the petulant way China's leaders react to everything we do, it could be difficult.

    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    One thing the announcement has done is keep Christian Porter off the front page, like to know his financial backers were tho and what they expected in return!
    Last edited by allover; 20-09-21 at 08:58 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by allover View Post
    One thing the announcement has done is keep Christian Porter off the front page, like to know his financial backers were tho and what they expected in return!
    I agree, although "Blind Trusts" have been used by both parties over the years to fund various things. Porter is right about one thing, it is "mob rule." Now they all have to live with it as do we. Given that he wasn't guilty of anything according to the police, I view it as a sad day really.

    It's possible that they didn't want ANYTHING in return. It could be run by his mother for all we know. I really don't think either party wants to open that can of worms as they might need it themselves one day.
    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    No body gives some thing for nothing, if it was his mother he more than likely would have said so
    It is abhorrent and has not been the norm nor should it be
    It has happened in the past and a minister fell on his sword
    You will note that Morrison said there will be no further inquiry
    He did not say that those giving the money will not be denied what they wanted
    Porter brought the action him self and failed
    Porter also comes from W A where the liberals were wiped out due to corruption (see The Klan and Mathius Cormans part in it) Even Julia Bishop was out spoken about it.
    As i have said before, all major parties corrupt over time, they cannot help them selves
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Quote Originally Posted by allover View Post
    No body gives some thing for nothing, if it was his mother he more than likely would have said so
    It is abhorrent and has not been the norm nor should it be
    It has happened in the past and a minister fell on his sword
    You will note that Morrison said there will be no further inquiry
    He did not say that those giving the money will not be denied what they wanted
    Porter brought the action him self and failed
    Porter also comes from W A where the liberals were wiped out due to corruption (see The Klan and Mathius Cormans part in it) Even Julia Bishop was out spoken about it.
    As i have said before, all major parties corrupt over time, they cannot help them selves
    Yeah, that's fine, but all this Porter stuff is conjecture and opinion on your part. Do you have any evidence as to Porters guilt? Nobody else has.

    Allover, I don't care if we go back and forth on this, but start a thread for it if you want.....not this one hey. Or go back to the original Porter thread, there is one somewhere.
    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by enf View Post
    Yeah, that's fine, but all this Porter stuff is conjecture and opinion on your part. Do you have any evidence as to Porters guilt? Nobody else has.

    Allover, I don't care if we go back and forth on this, but start a thread for it if you want.....not this one hey. Or go back to the original Porter thread, there is one somewhere.
    ENF, you are not going to like me for this BUT i could not believe what a stupid statement you made originally, go have a listen to what Malcolm Turnbull said
    Last edited by allover; 20-09-21 at 04:03 PM.
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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