I am going to stick my neck out and predict the turning point of electric vehicles
It is November 2022+
Why?, because the patents on the Li-Po battery expires just prior to this (BASF hold the patent rights)
Back ground, Tesla is not the leader of electrical vehicles, yes sales wise it is, but in China you now have 400 (yep that's right) electrical vehicle manufacturers
So many that the Chinese Govt is going to cull many to rationalize the industry
China has many advantages
Labor obviously
Primarily they have been developing cars with a Li-Po battery for several years due to an anomaly that China has been exempt from paying royalties and have been producing their own versions of Li-Po giving them a decisive cost advantage
Even Tesla China is using Li-Po in their vehicles for the local market
The licensing agreement is that they, Chinese manufacturers, cannot (should not) sell out side of China or they pay royalties?
Their electronics industries, several companies are trialing self driving cars as well
Let's take a company called BYD for example, their cars are to hit Australian shores in the next few months
They are not only a car manufacturer but also the fourth largest battery manufacturer in the world (Links down the bottom)
The battery they are using is their version of a Li-Po battery. When penetrated by a nail does not self destruct, when 10 tonnes pressure is applied, it is unaffected and can with stand high temperatures
It can be charged up to 100% approx 1,000,000 times, ie the battery will last the life time of the vehicle
Driving range 400kms + (250 miles) with an 80% charge in 10 minutes. ie 320 kms
Sydney - Melbourne, Sydney Brisbane would require 2# 10 minute breaks
Disadvantage of the Li-Po battery is it is not as energy dense as Lithium batteries, but you can only charge Li batteries to 90% maximum and you require cooling and fire preventive mechanisms. Which means you can pack more Li-Po batteries into the same area to obtain the same or similar results
You are probably saying to your self now, why aren't Western car manufacturers using LI-Po batteries
The only answer i can give is the same reasons they would not use use Jaguar disc brakes in the mid 50's until the patent ran out, they would not pay the royalties
LG (think it is LG) have/are developing their own version of the Li-Po battery for general release but (IMO) waiting for the patent rights to expire
This will open up all present car manufacturers to the electric car revolution
All these new China imports are NOW available at the same price as ICE vehicles
The cost per kw of the Li-Po in China is US$94 at this present time, BYD think they can expand the capacity of the present battery by 25%, ie a 500km range (ideal conditions!)
Generalizing, would i sell my diesel 4x4 Ranger, no way (yet) but my wife's car in a Hyundai and does f'all kms around the suburbs, for simplicity and fuel savings i would not hesitate (after typing that word i thought of unproven quality of Chinese cars) of buying one
I also see a lot of problems for manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes etc because they will be subject to competition from a vehicle that out performs them, has more electronic devices, possibly the same if not better interior etc, all for the same price of a Hyundai
The Revolution Is Here,
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