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Thread: Electric vehicle turning point

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    Default Electric vehicle turning point

    I am going to stick my neck out and predict the turning point of electric vehicles
    It is November 2022+
    Why?, because the patents on the Li-Po battery expires just prior to this (BASF hold the patent rights)
    Back ground, Tesla is not the leader of electrical vehicles, yes sales wise it is, but in China you now have 400 (yep that's right) electrical vehicle manufacturers
    So many that the Chinese Govt is going to cull many to rationalize the industry
    China has many advantages
    Labor obviously
    Primarily they have been developing cars with a Li-Po battery for several years due to an anomaly that China has been exempt from paying royalties and have been producing their own versions of Li-Po giving them a decisive cost advantage
    Even Tesla China is using Li-Po in their vehicles for the local market
    The licensing agreement is that they, Chinese manufacturers, cannot (should not) sell out side of China or they pay royalties?
    Their electronics industries, several companies are trialing self driving cars as well
    Let's take a company called BYD for example, their cars are to hit Australian shores in the next few months
    They are not only a car manufacturer but also the fourth largest battery manufacturer in the world (Links down the bottom)
    The battery they are using is their version of a Li-Po battery. When penetrated by a nail does not self destruct, when 10 tonnes pressure is applied, it is unaffected and can with stand high temperatures
    It can be charged up to 100% approx 1,000,000 times, ie the battery will last the life time of the vehicle
    Driving range 400kms + (250 miles) with an 80% charge in 10 minutes. ie 320 kms
    Sydney - Melbourne, Sydney Brisbane would require 2# 10 minute breaks
    Disadvantage of the Li-Po battery is it is not as energy dense as Lithium batteries, but you can only charge Li batteries to 90% maximum and you require cooling and fire preventive mechanisms. Which means you can pack more Li-Po batteries into the same area to obtain the same or similar results
    You are probably saying to your self now, why aren't Western car manufacturers using LI-Po batteries
    The only answer i can give is the same reasons they would not use use Jaguar disc brakes in the mid 50's until the patent ran out, they would not pay the royalties
    LG (think it is LG) have/are developing their own version of the Li-Po battery for general release but (IMO) waiting for the patent rights to expire
    This will open up all present car manufacturers to the electric car revolution
    All these new China imports are NOW available at the same price as ICE vehicles
    The cost per kw of the Li-Po in China is US$94 at this present time, BYD think they can expand the capacity of the present battery by 25%, ie a 500km range (ideal conditions!)



    Generalizing, would i sell my diesel 4x4 Ranger, no way (yet) but my wife's car in a Hyundai and does f'all kms around the suburbs, for simplicity and fuel savings i would not hesitate (after typing that word i thought of unproven quality of Chinese cars) of buying one
    I also see a lot of problems for manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes etc because they will be subject to competition from a vehicle that out performs them, has more electronic devices, possibly the same if not better interior etc, all for the same price of a Hyundai

    The Revolution Is Here,
    Last edited by allover; 11-10-21 at 10:01 AM.
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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  • #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by allover View Post
    I am going to stick my neck out and predict the turning point of electric vehicles
    It is November 2022+
    Why?, because the patents on the Li-Po battery expires just prior to this (BASF hold the patent rights)

    The Revolution Is Here,

    EV's mostly do not use LiPo batteries regardless of their often misunderstood definition.

    You might be confused with Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries LiFePO4 or LFP for short that BASF does indeed hold the patent and Tesla is exploring to use in heavy vehicles and also
    lighter ones in China.

    I don't think the patent was holding them back from use in EVs.
    Their disadvantage is a smaller power density per volume/weight compared to other Li-Ion types that use cobalt and manganese.
    So they are not suitable for use in performance cars.
    They have been around for a couple of decades and I use them for all my off grid needs and my electrical mini tractor.

    Lately there have been new developments in the LiFePO4 technology which will involve newer patent costs but again I do not see that holding back the EV revolution.
    Everybody has been cooking new batteries lately and even in Australia some smart guys have figured out a Lithium Battery that uses that could have a power density 3-5 times higher while maintaining a similar cycle life compared with the current Li-Ion types used in EVs.

    I will certainly not buy an EV from China.

    Some say the EV revolution is already there.
    Here in AU all will say no fvckin' way.
    I say EVs are creeping up all over the world in a gradual parabolic incline with no significant turning points.

    I am assured all manufacturers will be competing with each other with better battery designs all the way until even the last outback dweller has access to an EV truck that can travers Australia from Sydney to Perth on a single charge.
    But that is still a fair way beyond Nov 2022.
    It is a shame this all does not get even the slightest support in our country because that Sugared Sulphur battery concept does look promising.

    Edit: OK I forgot Twiggy but he is not interested in private EVs. However I see a flow on effect from his Green(OMFG, I used that forbidden word) Ammonia fuelled heavy vehicles that crack Hydrogen for fuel cells to power EVs all across Australia maybe not so in the distant future.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 12-10-21 at 12:43 PM.
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    I am assured all manufacturers will be competing with each other with better battery designs all the way until even the last outback dweller has access to an EV truck that can travers Australia from Sydney to Perth on a single charge.
    You wish. Currently the ICE cannot even do that on one "charge" unless you happen to have a HUGE fuel tank on it. If an EV can travel about 800km on a charge, it might, just get some support in OZ, provided, re-charging does not take forever......

    NOTE: I have NOT researched ANY of this, but I have crossed this continent more times than I can remember.
    I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...

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    Quote Originally Posted by lsemmens View Post
    You wish. Currently the ICE cannot even do that on one "charge" unless you happen to have a HUGE fuel tank on it. If an EV can travel about 800km on a charge, it might, just get some support in OZ, provided, re-charging does not take forever......

    NOTE: I have NOT researched ANY of this, but I have crossed this continent more times than I can remember.
    I am not wishing anything but I keep myself up to date on the matter.

    Top of the range Tesla S can currently do about 650km with current battery technology.
    I assure we are not going to stop just there but lets say for simplicity reasons we make the car a bit larger to accomodate a larger battery (the model S is quite small, lets put a larger battery in the model X) so we get 800km using that technology.

    Along comes an unheard of government that decides to fund those dudes in the Monash Uni and get their Lithium Sulphur Glucose battery up and running for production with an expected 5 fold power density.

    Bazinga you suddenly got 4000km range!

    Oh look:


    65km left to find a Subway (I hate Maccas) and maybe a charger nearby in one of those towns.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 12-10-21 at 08:54 PM.
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    How long will it take to charge?
    I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...

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    I know you can take articles with a grain of salt, but when reading an article about Monash Uni "adding a teaspoon of sugar to a battery composition" to increase its charge rate to a 1000 cycles, there was another article claiming a company working "in secret" for the US Defence who have been doing similar research to Monash had obtained 700 kw/kg and on their way to 900
    Unfortunately cannot find the link
    If true Uncle Fester's prediction could well be true in the short future
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Quote Originally Posted by lsemmens View Post
    How long will it take to charge?
    After travelling non stop from Perth to Sydney I would think even the toughest bloke needs a night of sleep.
    Limitations will be likely with the available charger even if this battery could take a higher charge current.

    There are some DC Ultra Rapid chargers that give you up to 400 km in 15 minutes.

    I certainly need longer to order and eat a footlong tuna Subway with ALL the salads.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 14-10-21 at 12:31 PM.
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    True....I've done Adelaide to Darwin non stop more than once. 400Km in 15 mins sounds great, I'd be happy with that.
    I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...

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    Quote Originally Posted by lsemmens View Post
    True....I've done Adelaide to Darwin non stop more than once. 400Km in 15 mins sounds great, I'd be happy with that.

    320 km in 10 minutes????? probably put a bigger grin on your face
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Quote Originally Posted by allover View Post
    320 km in 10 minutes????? probably put a bigger grin on your face
    Just to be clear we are still talking battery charge times here not maglev vehicles in a very long vacuum tube type of speed
    I am an arrogant, irritating RSole.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    Just to be clear we are still talking battery charge times here not maglev vehicles in a very long vacuum tube type of speed
    Aww.... don't bust the bubble! Killjoy!
    I'm out of my mind, but feel free to leave a message...

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    Here's a twist (or a little turning point if you like):


    "Old cars look beautiful and new cars all look the same."
    OK when it comes to lifting up the bonnet we may need to redefine what is considered beautiful:


    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 18-10-21 at 11:15 AM.
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    https://www.speedtest.net/result/d/7...193b4402e8.png

    FTTN, 710m line length, bit faster now with draytek modem....

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    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Ah, is there no end to peoples ingenuity when it comes to electric cars!


    There coming faster than you think
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Incidentally received this tidbit from a mate in the UK...

    "We now have ultra low emissions zone 6 miles from us. Wife has been caught up in that due to where she was going in Diesel Largo so that one journey cost 25 quid levy for UlEZ plus another 15 for congestion charge (only electric cars avoid that) plus fuel."

    Hopefully I'll be pushing up the daisies before this starts to happen, here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wotnot View Post
    Incidentally received this tidbit from a mate in the UK...

    "We now have ultra low emissions zone 6 miles from us. Wife has been caught up in that due to where she was going in Diesel Largo so that one journey cost 25 quid levy for UlEZ plus another 15 for congestion charge (only electric cars avoid that) plus fuel."

    Hopefully I'll be pushing up the daisies before this starts to happen, here.
    I will most likely be too, considering we have no emission standards at all here, hence the reason car makers refuse to sell their cheaper EV models to us and rather dump their old petrol stinkers here because they can only sell them in 3rd world countries with no emission standards who don't give a rat's about the heath of their population.

    SloMo's 'new' EV policy is just another kick in the teeth for those wishing for affordable EVs in this country.

    While that laggard in your YT video is talking a lot of crock about EVs per se, I agree(and always did) with his outlook and unlikelihood of a rapid uptake of EVs in Australia for all the wrong reasons.

    SloMo instead of ScoMo, yes that sticks!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    I am not wishing anything but I keep myself up to date on the matter.

    Top of the range Tesla S can currently do about 650km with current battery technology.
    that is at 80kmh on a flat smooth road on a test track......

    in the real world at 110kmh the range is around 370km, and that's without a headwind.......
    https://www.speedtest.net/result/d/7...193b4402e8.png

    FTTN, 710m line length, bit faster now with draytek modem....

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    Quote Originally Posted by hoe View Post
    that is at 80kmh on a flat smooth road on a test track......

    in the real world at 110kmh the range is around 370km, and that's without a headwind.......
    From the other thread recently when we discussed this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post

    So based on that I would extrapolate a latest Tesla S with 640km EPA range to run 393km at constant 110km/h on smooth flat highway.
    Considering Elon Musk claims his Teslas have 5-15 miles reserve after the battery shows completely empty, I may have nailed that estimate
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 18-11-21 at 07:13 PM.
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