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Thread: Nuclear power in Australia

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    Default Nuclear power in Australia

    Read the attached, which is aligned to my thinking (and reading). Thought i would post it due to a number of members who support Nuclear power for Australia
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Really?...here's another one....



    He's obviously an "aligned to your thinking" guru, and who knows, you both may be right. I don't think so, but I'm not a zealot, so I'll keep my mind open....

    4 days to till this lockdown madness ends...sigh! I'll be able to get a haircut woohoo! I feel like I'm a white haired 60's hippy..The average Victorian is a hero for putting up with this sh!t.
    The fact that there's a highway to hell and a stairway to heaven says a lot about the anticipated traffic flow.

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    WOW

    Just for those not bothered to read the link:

    • Finlandís : So far, this 1.6 Gigawatt reactor has cost about $14 billion, which is around $8,750 per kilowatt of power output. Construction started in 2005 and was scheduled to be completed in 2009. Due to delays, itís now scheduled to commence normal operation in February 2022 for a total construction time of 17 years.
    • Franceís : The cost of this 1.6 gigawatt reactor is approximately $31 billion. Thatís $19,400 per kilowatt. Normal operation is scheduled for 2023 ó 16 years after construction began.
    • UKís : These two reactors will provide 3.2 gigawatts of power and cost around $42 billion. Thatís $13,100 per kilowatt. Construction began in 2018, and theyíre currently scheduled to come online in 2026.
    • US : These two reactors in Georgia (the US state, not where Stalin was born) will total 3.2 gigawatts and, by the time they are complete, may cost over . Thatís around $12,000 per kilowatt. Construction started in 2013, and theyíre expected to come online next year. These are the only commercial reactors being built in the United States.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 11-10-21 at 02:31 PM.
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    The bottom line is nuclear power is expensive and there are cheaper alternatives!
    Last edited by allover; 11-10-21 at 05:00 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by enf View Post
    Really?...here's another one....



    He's obviously an "aligned to your thinking" guru, and who knows, you both may be right. I don't think so, but I'm not a zealot, so I'll keep my mind open....

    4 days to till this lockdown madness ends...sigh! I'll be able to get a haircut woohoo! I feel like I'm a white haired 60's hippy..The average Victorian is a hero for putting up with this sh!t.
    There's plenty of "how to" or maybe "How not to" vids on lock-down haircuts on ewechoob .. LOL. But I'm the same here, it's hanging on me collar...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    WOW

    Just for those not bothered to read the link:
    If there is one thing I love about Greenwashing is that they can speak a truth and at the same time lie through their fvcking arseholes in such a way to convince people that their shit don't stink and bottle their farts to e sold as fragrance in expensive shops in Paris.

    Lets start with the warning "solarquotes" .... if the url was lesbianrainbowunicorn.com.au I think I might be more prone to their bullshit out of the gate.

    Finlandís Olkiluoto #3 reactor: So far, this 1.6 Gigawatt reactor has cost about $14 billion, which is around $8,750 per kilowatt of power output. Construction started in 2005 and was scheduled to be completed in 2009. Due to delays, itís now scheduled to commence normal operation in February 2022 for a total construction time of 17 years.
    Rather than speculate, you might like to read about it somewhere more credible.

    Three nuclear power stations with six reactors. They were going to build a 7th

    Franceís Flammanville #3 reactor: The cost of this 1.6 gigawatt reactor is approximately $31 billion. Thatís $19,400 per kilowatt. Normal operation is scheduled for 2023 ó 16 years after construction began.
    Ah, I'm seeing a trend here. another EPR
    "The latest cost estimate (July 2020) is at Ä19.1 billion, with commissioning planned tentatively at the end of 2022."

    UKís Hinkley Point C: These two reactors will provide 3.2 gigawatts of power and cost around $42 billion. Thatís $13,100 per kilowatt. Construction began in 2018, and theyíre currently scheduled to come online in 2026.
    That's strike three... another EPR
    £22.9 billion

    US Vogtle 3 & 4: These two reactors in Georgia (the US state, not where Stalin was born) will total 3.2 gigawatts and, by the time they are complete, may cost over $38 billion. Thatís around $12,000 per kilowatt. Construction started in 2013, and theyíre expected to come online next year. These are the only commercial reactors being built in the United States.


    So lets now throw back the curtain. I'm not even going to bother to check the maths.
    $8750/kW
    $19,400/kW
    $13,100/kW
    $$12,000/kW

    When the Greens start chucking around big numbers you know they are jerkin everybody's chain.

    Olkiluoto 3 - service life 60 years.
    Flamanville 3 - service life 60 years
    Hinkley Point C - service life 60 years
    US Vogtle 3 & 4 -service life 60-80 years, lets just stick with 60.

    Typically you can say that reactors will spend about 70% of their time running.
    60 years x 0.7 = 42 years = 15330 days = 367920 hours.

    $8750/kW = $0.0238/kWhr
    $19,400/kW = $0.0527/kWhr
    $13,100/kW = $0.0356/kWhr
    $12,000/kW =$0.0326/kWhr

    wow, really expensive electricity !!!

    Consider: coal power plants provide roughly 45 percent of U.S. electricity at a seemingly bargain price ó just 3.2 cents per Kilowatt hour of electricity.

    PISS ON MY LEG AND TELL ME IT'S RAINING YOU FVCKING FAUX GREEN FAGGOTS !

    Lets pick some others at random.
    Sanmen 1 & 2 for a total power output of about 2.4GW
    The first pair of reactors were estimated to cost CNY 32.4 billion yuan, later estimates in 2013 gave figures of CNY 40.1 billion ($6.12 billion USD)
    Total cost ended up being about $7 billion. Lets round that up to $10 billion aud. $4167/kW or $0.0113/kWhr.

    Knock yourselves out people because another faux green tactic is to pick the most expensive examples. Like a bogan girlfriend ordering lobster.
    She doesn't even know if she likes it but can't afford to pay for it herself to find out.

    And lets face it, I'm not even going to bother picking some other examples because you know they're all going to come in at sensible and reasonable rates.

    The reason why Australia won't have nuclear until it's too late is because of green fvcknuckles who are going to use FUD and every lie and dirty sales tactic they can think of to scare and confuse the public and then they will boondoggle and obstruct construction with as much green and red tape as they can muster.


    Don't buy the bullshit, don't sell the bullshit !
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    Nuclear power, so expensive even Bangladesh can't afford it. 2.4Gw
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    Quote Originally Posted by trash View Post
    If there is one thing I love about Greenwashing is that they can speak a truth and at the same time lie through their fvcking arseholes in such a way to convince people that their shit don't stink and bottle their farts to e sold as fragrance in expensive shops in Paris.

    ...

    The reason why Australia won't have nuclear until it's too late is because of green fvcknuckles who are going to use FUD and every lie and dirty sales tactic they can think of to scare and confuse the public and then they will boondoggle and obstruct construction with as much green and red tape as they can muster.


    Don't buy the bullshit, don't sell the bullshit !

    Then you must be mega pissed off that Australia's no. 1 Greenwasher Andrew Forest is building the world's largest manufacturing centre of wind turbines, solar photovoltaic cells, electrolysers, long-range electric cabling, electrification systems and associated infrastructure for a mere 0.65 Billion including a factory to produce electrolysers with the initial capacity of 2 gigawatts per annum for a laughable 0.083 Billion.

    Yeah all this greenwash energy BS is way more expensive than nuclear
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 12-10-21 at 10:16 AM.
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    Trash
    I am aware you are tearing the article apart, but am a bit worried some will be left with the impression nuclear will be cheaper, have attached a link to an article that shows what they believe is the actual cost of nuclear power compared to gas and coal, no mention of renewables


    Nuclear power, so expensive even Bangladesh can't afford it. 2.4Gw

    Because they have no natural resources and would have to import both coal and gas?
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Quote Originally Posted by allover View Post
    Because they have no natural resources and would have to import both coal and gas?
    That makes Nuclear cheaper? Or more viable?

    Because as the website says, carbon based fuels are more competitive because they are cheaper. Even when you have to buy the fuel.
    The disadvantage of course is carbon dioxide and if put your fingers on the scales with a carbon tax then that evens up the playing field a lot.
    It's the very reason Australia uses coal and gas. They're cheap. The other advantage is of course we own them.

    Of course the real way to ensure Nuclear is competitive is to have a level playing field. The only reason Australia doesn't have nuclear power is because there is a law preventing it, not that it isn't competitive or affordable.

    And shutting down coal and gas power stations for nuclear is not the answer either. To keep everybody in check there needs to be power diversity.
    Even with a carbon tax coal fire power stations will have no trouble running. When you need power and there aren't enough nukes, greens or hydro to keep your electricity carbon free, they are going to be there waiting for you to sell your soul and cash in on it. If any one technology ups the price, the others will be there to kick the chair out from under it. Coal, Gas, nuclear and Hydro will keep Solar and Wind prices in check and vise versa.

    I see a golden opportunity to put nuclear power plants at Lidell and Morwell.
    Even in nuclear there should be diversity. We could start with off the shelf Candu reactors. Then look at other off the shelf reactors like AP1000.
    At the same time put R&D into an Australian designed and built breeder reactor. That would cost a lot more but at the same time if it is managed correctly so that components are controlled and known quantities the technology can then be exported.

    One of the other things Australia should have been jumping on long ago was importing nuclear waste and exploiting it for every penny it is worth with some unfair contracts preying on politicians and greens in other countries too dumb for their own welfare.
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    As you have eluded to, Coal and gas do have additional costs associated to them. The harm the byproducts when burning do to people. eg Labtobe Valley, a population of 73,000 people, when you drive into the valley on a still day you descend into a brown fog, what that must be doing to people and the costs of health care, lost production etc is not taken into account when we pay our electricity bill
    I would not think other parts of Australia would be any different
    Similar, gas, claims are now being made that the refugee gas escaping from bore hole to burning is just as bad as burning coal, once again the true cost of using these forms of sources is not being taken into account and the general public will be the one's paying!
    Just my thoughts
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    Yep. outsourcing the costs. But the world doesn't really count those dollars. I have just come to accept the buttfvcking, I don't have to smile about it though.

    Ideally I think we'd do well with a nice mix of Nuclear in all it's flavours, Gas, Hydro and Solar (all flavours). I can't say I'm real impressed with wind, but if it is paying its own way then it's in.
    Black coal is something we should also be keeping just a little of just to keep that level playing field. Hybrid coal/solar and nuclear/solar are some of the configurations I like.

    I also like localised battery storage and a free market grid. I don't see any future in bulk grid batteries or hydrogen.
    I'd be prepared to change my mind about a Hydrogen economy but I'm not seeing any future for it at the moment.
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    Quote Originally Posted by trash View Post
    I'd be prepared to change my mind about a Hydrogen economy but I'm not seeing any future for it at the moment.
    You will one day, you will have no choice
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    Oh you a so overconfident about that. (which is kinda good).
    I'm completely off grid. I could survive at this point without any fossil fuels. Though diesel makes things just a little easier.
    Being off grid I also have the ability to make hydrogen, the problem I have is storing it and after that using it.
    I have almost unlimited DC power so sourcing the energy isn't the issue. It's storing, transporting and spending it.

    I know the government is investing in hydrogen. While I think it is worth hedging that bet, I don't expect it to pay off. They're over optimistic.
    The same can be said for battery technology. There is always an artificial high that batteries will make a dramatic jump in capacity.
    That hasn't happened and isn't going to happen. Battery progress is in the order of 1-2% per year. So in 20 years it would not be unexpected to see a 20% increase in performance.

    Here's a good benchmark for future reference. A Tesla car in 2020 has a storage capacity of about 10kWhr.
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    Quote Originally Posted by trash View Post
    The same can be said for battery technology. There is always an artificial high that batteries will make a dramatic jump in capacity.
    That hasn't happened and isn't going to happen. Battery progress is in the order of 1-2% per year. So in 20 years it would not be unexpected to see a 20% increase in performance.

    Here's a good benchmark for future reference. A Tesla car in 2020 has a storage capacity of about 10kWhr.
    Jeez Trash 10kWh, did Trump or Jeremy Clarkson tell you that?
    The tiny battery in my plugin hybrid has already 12kWh (10 usable) which gives me in city traffic about 50km range without the ICE.

    I will leave it up to you to figure out the capacity of a performance EV with 650km range.
    Maybe time to exit the 20th century.

    The same goes for your battery predictions.
    For stationary use it is firstly about COST not so much capacity but that also looks to soon have quantum leaps with the Li-S and improvements in the LiFePO4 battery technology.

    You totally disregard demand and mass production.
    Lets look at solar panels 20 years ago, price reduction and performance before that time was indeed in the 1-2% range.
    Gosh you would pay over $10/Watt and not considering inflation.
    Then about 5 years later somebody decided to put them on the roof and feed them into the grid and today you can get panels for less than 50c/Watt. That is NOT 20% less!

    Battery Mega factories are currently being constructed all over the world but mainly Asia (China and South Korea).
    Now look at your history books what happened when those Asians started to make computers and other electronics and solar panels.

    Cobalt is the only expensive component in Li-batteries and that is being reduced lately and in the the two above examples not required.
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    I tend to side with Uncle Fester, with all the billions being spent, and winner takes all, some body has to luck out surely
    There is a fine line between "Hobby" and "Madness"

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    Trash, here is an example as to how much energy a battery can release
    Last edited by allover; 16-10-21 at 07:34 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Fester View Post
    Jeez Trash 10kWh, did Trump or Jeremy Clarkson tell you that?
    yeah yeah... don;t think there is any bias here. I'm not sure what google gave me last night, I just remember it's being something like 43V @ 200Ah with a 200 mile range. I picked the smallest example with no other bias. And I know there were larger capacity vehicles.

    For stationary use it is firstly about COST not so much capacity but that also looks to soon have quantum leaps with the Li-S and improvements in the LiFePO4 battery technology.
    Ah there it is... wild optimism. We're just going to have to wait and see if this one pans out OR ... 2% improvement rule holds true.

    You totally disregard demand and mass production.
    Not at all, I'm actually counting on it and you could accuse me of being overly optimistic about that.

    Battery Mega factories are currently being constructed all over the world but mainly Asia (China and South Korea).
    Now look at your history books what happened when those Asians started to make computers and other electronics and solar panels.
    It sounds like you're making a good case for a Hydrogen economy to be sunk right out of the gate. Hmmm.

    In general, I still think you're being overly optimistic. I have no doubt that a technology will get better, but which ones will succeed I wouldn't be betting the house on any of them.

    Yes prices come down, solar panels came down in price, as have batteries. But you might notice that electricity in Australia is about 90% coal and gas and 5% Hydro. That leaves 5% for all the solar, wind and weird like shit like biomass.

    We want to get to a zero net emissions asap... 90% of our electricity is carbon based.

    Hmm.. solar, wind, hydrogen and batteries. OR Nuclear.

    OK, lets not fall into a false dichotomy. We should be doing everything. But with the exclusion of nuclear. We're not going to achieve it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by trash View Post
    Yes prices come down, solar panels came down in price, as have batteries. But you might notice that electricity in Australia is about 90% coal and gas and 5% Hydro. That leaves 5% for all the solar, wind and weird like shit like biomass.

    We want to get to a zero net emissions asap... 90% of our electricity is carbon based.

    Oh dear did you 'Google' those numbers again?
    Time to use a propper intelligent search engine like Duckduckgo that gives you results from official websites first and not those that Google wants you to see, hoping to increase the advertising exposure.

    So from the result on the top when I dd a DDG search:


    In 2020, 24% of Australiaís total electricity generation was from renewable energy sources, including solar (9%), wind (9%) and hydro (6%). The share of renewables in total electricity generation in 2020 was the highest since levels recorded in the mid-1960s.

    So 24% last year and strongly growing.
    Don't think it will be that difficult as the scaremongers like to see it, to get a 40-50% target by 2035 or what ever they hopefully will decide on.
    We just need a target to avoid being banished from trade with non Asian countries. We are already irreversibly banished from the largest Asian country.


    Edit: Ha ha ha, 43V in an EV
    Ever noticed a small blue EV warning triangle on some number plates?
    That is for the paramedics if they have to attend injured in a hybrid or electric vehicle so they try not to get electrocuted on the 300-400V that those batteries deliver.
    Last edited by Uncle Fester; 17-10-21 at 04:02 PM.
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    In 2020, 24% of Australiaís total electricity generation was from renewable energy sources, including solar (9%), wind (9%) and hydro (6%). The share of renewables in total electricity generation in 2020 was the highest since levels recorded in the mid-1960s.

    Hmm, be careful Unco, think those figures may be boosted by the time frame 9-00am to 5-00pm, there may be back up required at other times that may go close to 90%???? ie after dark on a wind less night. Believe as of today, weekly supplies have been in the order of 50% renewables, what is going to happen when they reach 400% requirement renewable energy production!

    And the saying, When the wind don't blow and the sun don't shine, may be a little hard to promote as the inter connector is going to be as long as the distance from London to New Delhi!
    Last edited by allover; 17-10-21 at 04:21 PM.
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