ICE vehicle phase out 2030

[bazzy]

Hi All

With the Government wanting to phase out Internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030, There are a very large number of vehicles on the road with the overwhelming majority being petrol or diesel vehicles.
as it stands now ICE vehicles are the majority being sold even now new.

I know at the least AGN is looking to offer hydrogen, some of the main brands such as Toyota are also testing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. given that there are a lot of even new cars on the road now i would not expect them to be end of life come 2030. Hydrogen can also be burned in an internal combustion engine.

from people running those stupid little hho devices that don't actually save any fuel due to the laws of thermodynamics, at the least these devices seem to have shown engines seem to be resilient enough to handle that gas.

would it be likely to be a technology that will be developed in the coming years to convert existing ICE vehicles to run on Hydrogen so they can phase out oil based fuels entirely? I conceive such a device would work in a similar way to an LPG conversion. Hydrogen tank in the rear of the vehicle. gas line hooked up to the front of the vehicle and the electronics of the engine routed through a gas computer to manage the inputs from the engine.

Is something like this likely to happen?

I don't see fuel prices coming down and we really need to be making a better effort of transitioning away from them. additionally locally manufactured fuel sources ensures we are not reliant on foreign countries for core transport functionality.

[wotnot]

Hi All

With the Government wanting to phase out Internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030, There are a very large number of vehicles on the road with the overwhelming majority being petrol or diesel vehicles.
as it stands now ICE vehicles are the majority being sold even now new.

I know at the least AGN is looking to offer hydrogen, some of the main brands such as Toyota are also testing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. given that there are a lot of even new cars on the road now i would not expect them to be end of life come 2030. Hydrogen can also be burned in an internal combustion engine.

from people running those stupid little hho devices that don't actually save any fuel due to the laws of thermodynamics, at the least these devices seem to have shown engines seem to be resilient enough to handle that gas.

would it be likely to be a technology that will be developed in the coming years to convert existing ICE vehicles to run on Hydrogen so they can phase out oil based fuels entirely? I conceive such a device would work in a similar way to an LPG conversion. Hydrogen tank in the rear of the vehicle. gas line hooked up to the front of the vehicle and the electronics of the engine routed through a gas computer to manage the inputs from the engine.

Is something like this likely to happen?

I don't see fuel prices coming down and we really need to be making a better effort of transitioning away from them. additionally locally manufactured fuel sources ensures we are not reliant on foreign countries for core transport functionality.

Umm...no, not quite the picture.... the change in the laws only bans the sale of new ICE powered vehicles, not existing ICE powered vehicles.....and we probably need someone with a crystal ball to predict what's going to happen in the latter case B^)

Think of AU for instance ~ let's bullshit to ourselves and imagine the Aust. Govt. ended up with such a huge budget surplus, they were able to buy every aussie a brand new EV, and literally ban all ICE powered cars altogether at the same time...m'kay? IF that happened, would Australia be able to hit it's global CO2 emissions target?...Pffft!...not ever close....only around 8% of this country's CO2 emissions are directly attributed to ICE powered cars. In fact...in this country such a thing would require more govt. expenditure wrt green electricity generation.

IMHO, the whole global warming and CO2 emission reductions go on to veil a bigger reality ~ wind the clock back 2 or 3 decades, and it was the realization of being near to the point of exhausting the world's crude oil supplies that was considered the real threat, not how much CO2 was being belched into the air by ICE engines....this is why we ended up with so many 4cyl cars on the road, very little to do with emissions.

Imagine for a moment the world was still very much at risk of exhausting it's crude oil supply, and all these things including EVs and having to meet CO2 emissions targets...while supposedly trying to address global warming, also have the convenient side effect of reducing crude oil consumption. You think...why would they do this, and you have to look to which industries actually rely on crude oil based fuels....at the top of my list would be agricultural/food based industries ; at the top of other ppl's list will be ICE powered aircraft...read: air travel. If it came to the crunch of having deny ppl with ICE vehicles from being able to buy petrol for example, so that jet aircraft and other ICE powered planes can stay in the air, what do you think is going to happen? Likely petrol @ $20/litre ... 8)

The cost of 2ndhand ICE powered cars will likely drop and drop, with the rise of EV adoption and increasing up & up of fuel prices. The resale price of 2ndhand classic/veteran/vintage ICE vehicle should continue to rise, as aligned with their intrinsic worth as an antique/collectable item.

footnote: I should be pushing up the daisies by 2035 if my luck holds good...but there's always Murphy =)

[bazzy]

See thats a problem.

if fuel reaches that price. industries that rely on it will end up costing more.
for example lets say a freight truck, google says the average mack truck consumes approximately 30l of diesel per 100km (not sure how accurate this is) but using that figure to move freight from Sydney to Brisbane for example 900km divided by 100, 9*30 is 270L 270L multiplied by $20/L is $5400 that means freight will basically be prohibitively expensive between cities.

Electric vehicles unfortunately do not address this issue. the bigger the rig the more batteries are needed to supply enough power to the rig. the more batteries the more weight meaning the more load therefor the more batteries are needed. its a case of diminishing returns. additionally the more range the more batteries you need then the more weight so more load therefore more batteries are needed. again diminishing returns.

now if for example push all people over to electric i cant see this working either. take for example the BYD vehicles (i know them off the top of my head) atto 3 boasts about 400km range. a fast charger can charge to 80% in an hour so they say. getting from 80% to 100% always takes much longer. so that means again as long as their numbers can be believed every 300km you need to stop and recharge for an hour.
Now think every car on the road between Brisbane and Sydney having to do the same. you wont just need a fit out the size of a fuel station you would need something the size of a mega-mall carpark full of fast chargers. every 300km on each of the main arterial roads. The load on the electrical grid alone would make these a massive challenge we are not even close to being equipped for.

additionally you would have to consider the regional areas too. so you would need to have charging capability within 300km of any point on the roads. additionally you cant just bring extra fuel along with you like you can with a petrol car.

don't get me wrong electric cars are a great idea for the city and short distances but they really are not going to be practical for long distance travel such as inter state.
if however Hydrogen powered vehicles become the dominant option they generally work by converting hydrogen to electricity so these would be fairly easy to outfit with batteries for city driving and use hydrogen for interstate.

this would mean hydrogen would be also available to use in internal combustion engines so they can still be used for a bit longer until they eventually all disappear. keep in mind that cars kick around for 20 to 30 years before being scrapped.

[allover]

If you have the time, this is an interesting assessment of ice vehicles running on hydrogen

[wotnot]

If you have the time, this is an interesting assessment of ice vehicles running on hydrogen

Yep, and that vid also explains why we won't be seeing any of the older, Otto cycle ICE engines running on hydrogen...the AFR requirements of the fuel are a big hurdle.

JCB developed a diesel engine to run on hydrogen, when they did the maths and realized to get the same work out of one of their 20tonne excavators, they'd have to be fitted with 8tonne of batteries, and the machine would need strengthening to carry that additional weight. They converted their diesel engine from compression to spark ignition with a cylinder head specially adapted for hydrogen (including variable valve lift/timing), and they were able to preserve the low-end torque characteristics their machines require while emitting zero CO₂ and only the occasional puff of water vapour during a cold start. Diesels sort of lend themselves to this application, due to the high compression ratio, and inherent strength built into the cylinder block -->

[porkop]

Seems to me that there is a opportunity for someone to design a series of conversion systems for existing ICE vehicles to transition over to electric engines.

People love their cars, for me it’s my JEEP.

Imagine if I could have a electrical engine installed in my Jeep……..

I saw “Wheeler Dealers” on Foxtel, do a Maserati conversion to electric!

I reckon people will be more adaptive to electric vehicles if they could keep their choice of vehicle but have it converted instead of having to be forced to buy an new car!

[hoe]

Seems to me that there is a opportunity for someone to design a series of conversion systems for existing ICE vehicles to transition over to electric engines.

People love their cars, for me it’s my JEEP.

Imagine if I could have a electrical engine installed in my Jeep……..

I saw “Wheeler Dealers” on Foxtel, do a Maserati conversion to electric!

I reckon people will be more adaptive to electric vehicles if they could keep their choice of vehicle but have it converted instead of having to be forced to buy an new car!

check out a uk series, 'vintage voltage'.

they do lots of old vehicles. my favorite is the delorean they did.

[wotnot]

1957 Fairlane electrified....

[VroomVroom]

People love their cars, for me it’s my JEEP.

Imagine if I could have a electrical engine installed in my Jeep……..

Jeep electrified conversion stuff is available off the shelf in the USA

search Youtube for Electrified Veronica , she has just done one as a "gilmore girls" tribute vehicle

[wotnot]

[Uncle Fester]

Burning hydrogen in an ICE is a pointless waste.
I have seen some interesting projects about creating synthetic fuel from the sun and CO2 from the atmosphere but the inefficiency of the ICE just negates everything even if the production seems carbon neutral.

Prime movers, ships and trains will be running on simple ammonia(created by the sun) that can power ammonia fuel cells or burnt in an ICE.
Ammonia is the only sensible and viable solution as it is easy to store and much more energy efficient than hydrogen.
Certain types of ICEs can run on ammonia and despite their inefficiency it doesn't really matter because unlike synthetic fuels there is no carbon involved and it comes free from the sun.

...and this is happening right now coming from Australia:

[wotnot]

...as expected, the hydrogen bubble starts to burst...

[Uncle Fester]

Thanks Sabine

Since over 10 years ago I've been writing that Hydrogen in cars will never be a thing but many disagreed back then.

Solid state batteries are now FINALLY a thing.
A breakthrough where you could make symbolic analogies like the thermionic valve vs the transistor.
Prototypes already have the twice the energy density of batteries currently used in EV's and less than 10min charge to 80%.
Some are already calling 3million km run time in an EV, not sure how long it will take to confirm that.

Actually solid electrolytes where already known in the 1830's but the petrochemical industry had everything under control and abolished the electric cars in the early 1900's and with it the development of any new battery technologies which likely threw us back a century.

Samsung and CATL, a Chinese company which is by far world largest battery producer including for Tesla, have already solid state battery pilot production lines for EV companies to test in their vehicles.
I read today that the Pentagon has blacklisted CATL ...LOL.

[Uncle Fester]

...some 'flying' EV advances from China:

[RedXT]

1957 Fairlane electrified....

Absolute Sacrilege I have some classic cars 1967, 68 and 69 and the reason I have kept them as origonal as possible is is because they are classic cars they dont make them
like that anymore converting them to battery is bullshit and espically if its a V8

cheers thomo

[wotnot]

Absolute Sacrilege I have some classic cars 1967, 68 and 69 and the reason I have kept them as origonal as possible is is because they are classic cars they dont make them
like that anymore converting them to battery is bullshit and espically if its a V8

cheers thomo

...got a better story of sacrilege for you .... we live not far from Kooralbyn, car clubs meet up there for a day out, pretend to go fast up & down the light aircraft runway...etc etc...

...I probably only see things if I'm on the road during the weekend .... couple of weeks back, I was heading into town, with all these Ford 'door-slammers' heading the other way, heading out for a meet...

.....one of them that went past, I heard had an inline 6 in it (...'real men' use the 351 clevo 4V =), and I didn't think much of it at the time...ie; they did come out with the 250ci 2V motor as an option ... the cheap man's 2door, pretender-mobile...ahh, the 70's....

Anyhow, as fortune would have it, I came across the same car at the petrol station on my way home ...I'd had time to think about it, maybe they'd stuffed a turbo Barra in the thing?...

....wrong.... Toyota 2JZ mill, very large hairdryer, big WTA intercooler ('coz there's room I guess)... sacrilege you say?... =)

[RedXT]

...got a better story of sacrilege for you .... we live not far from Kooralbyn, car clubs meet up there for a day out, pretend to go fast up & down the light aircraft runway...etc etc...

...I probably only see things if I'm on the road during the weekend .... couple of weeks back, I was heading into town, with all these Ford 'door-slammers' heading the other way, heading out for a meet...

.....one of them that went past, I heard had an inline 6 in it (...'real men' use the 351 clevo 4V =), and I didn't think much of it at the time...ie; they did come out with the 250ci 2V motor as an option ... the cheap man's 2door, pretender-mobile...ahh, the 70's....

Anyhow, as fortune would have it, I came across the same car at the petrol station on my way home ...I'd had time to think about it, maybe they'd stuffed a turbo Barra in the thing?...

....wrong.... Toyota 2JZ mill, very large hairdryer, big WTA intercooler ('coz there's room I guess)... sacrilege you say?... =)

that makes an electric motor almost acceptable

[lsemmens]

Those Ford 2V sixes were sick! Mate had one in a TC Cortina. He never did work out how fast it could go. He managed to wind the speedo right around the dial before starting on the second lap when he had to slow down because the front end was so light, he had no steering. To all intents and purposes it looked like a stock TC. It even had the original 3 speed cog box in it!

[RedXT]

Those Ford 2V sixes were sick! Mate had one in a TC Cortina. He never did work out how fast it could go. He managed to wind the speedo right around the dial before starting on the second lap when he had to slow down because the front end was so light, he had no steering. To all intents and purposes it looked like a stock TC. It even had the original 3 speed cog box in it!

Yea my old man had a TC Cortina with the 2v six in it and it went like stink, Ford intended to run them at Bathurst to beat the Toranas until Holden decided to put a V8 in the torries and the rest is history